Peev attractiveness ntawm lub enterprise thiab cov forecasting peev ua si ntawm lub qhauj ntawm qhov kev siv kev lag luam

Enterprise ntawm qhov kev siv kev lag luam - ib tug complex ntau lawm thiab nyiaj txiag system yog yus muaj los ntawm ib tug ua ke ntawm cov khoom, inextricably txuas rau nws nrog nta. Cov muaj xws li: kev ntseeg, yooj, muaj, adaptability, sustainability, competitiveness, innovation nyhav, peev ua si, uas yog reflected nyob rau hauv lub muaj zog ntawm txoj kev siv ntawm cov peev, teev, ua kom pom tseeb thiab zoo heev ntawm nws txoj kev nqis peev, lub peev rov hais dua ntawm lub enterprise raws li ib tug tag nrho.

Nyob rau hauv niaj hnub tej yam kev mob, txhais los ntawm high kev sib tw nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam thiab kev tsuas xyaus ntawm cov tsoos hom ntawm cov khoom (kev pab), qhov kom zoo dua yog muab rau cov kev siv cov tuam txhab uas muaj siab kuj ua lag luam tus nqi, uas nws txoj kev loj hlob muaj peev xwm tsis tau tiav tsis muaj ntxiv peev pab rau lub tiav ntawm tsau thiab tam sim no cov cuab tam, qhov kev siv ntawm kev ntsuas los txhim kho cov khoom competitiveness, enterprise txoj kev loj hlob thiab kev txhim kho ntawm peev attractiveness.

Ua lub peev attractiveness ntawm lub tuam txhab assumes kev tswj ntawm kev nqis peev ua si, uas obviously yog lub tseem ceeb tshaj plaws parameter ntawm ib tug kev tsim kho lub tuam txhab.

Lub system ntawm peev ua si tswj kev khiav dej num qhia txog kev npaj, uas nyob rau hauv lub hauv paus ntawm kev twv cov ntaub ntawv los mus txiav txim lub tswv yim hom phiaj ntawm lub peev ua si ntawm cov kev kawm ntawm kev tswj, txoj kev thiab txhais tau tias ntawm tsis tau zoo lawv. Peev attractiveness ntawm lub enterprise nyob rau hauv lub tswv yim npaj aims kom peev ua si thiab cov txij nkawm ntawm nws cov optimum theem.

Txwv peev ua si npaj yog tsim nyob rau hauv tus txheej txheem ntawm forecasting lub txiaj ntsim ntawm uas yog cov ntau predictive nqi ntawm cov peev ua si index (structural ntsuas) nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, lub tseem ceeb heev theem peev ua si ntawm lub tsev enterprise, qhov kev kawm ntawm uas ua rau yus zoo hloov nyob rau hauv nws lag luam tus nqi. Muab hais tias lub peev attractiveness ntawm lub enterprise yuav tsum tau ib tug kuas outlook, lub complexity ntawm lub forecasting txheej txheem thiab yuav tsum kom zoo ntawm tau, nws yog tau mus ntsuam xyuas cov predictive nqi ntawm cov peev ua si ntsuas siv ob peb txoj kev.

Noj rau hauv tus account ib tug xov tooj ntawm lwm yam: lub tseem ntawm tus kwv uas forecasting (lub peev attractiveness ntawm lub tuam txhab, txoj kev thiab nws cov yam ntxwv ntsuas), nyob rau ntawm statistical cov lus qhia txog tus kwv, qhov nruab nrab-lub sij hawm lub sij hawm ntawm anticipation, nws yog advisable siv nyob rau hauv tus txheej txheem ntawm cua lub peev ua si ntawm lub tsev enterprise extrapolation txoj kev. Tsim Nyog precondition ntawm daim ntawv thov ntawm cov kev yog ib tug kawm ntawv ntawm inertia nyob rau hauv lub muaj zog ntawm peev ua si ntawm lub tsev qhauj nyob rau hauv lub luv luv thiab medium lub sij hawm.

Extrapolation txoj kev raws li nyob rau hauv flashbacks, thaum lub sij hawm uas tsim tus kwv dynamic qauv twv ua ntej: lub Performance index ntawm peev ua si ntawm lub tsev enterprise, nws cov yam ntxwv tsis thiab tis tiam sis nyob rau hauv cov ntsuas nyob rau hauv lub retrospective lub sij hawm rau lub neej yav tom ntej.

Kev tshawb fawb tau qhia tias nyob rau hauv thiaj li yuav txiav txim seb lub prognostic nqi ntawm kev ntsuas ntawm kev tsim kho kev lag luam qhauj kev ua si cog lus yog kev siv cov nram qab no txoj kev:

• analytical kawm tuab si lug;

• Tej yam yooj yim exponential smoothing;

• exponential smoothing Holt-Winters;

• Brown lub exponential smoothing.

Tag nrho cov kev yog raws li nyob rau hauv lub view hais tias xws li peev rov hais dua ntawm lub enterprise thiab dynamic theem nyob rau ib tug xov tooj ntawm kev ntsuas ntawm nws cov peev ua ub no rau lub sij hawm yam.