Yuav ua li cas yog cov tawm polls thiab dab tsi yog nws muaj feem rau ntawm zaum kawg tshwm sim ntawm qhov kev xaiv tsa

Exit poll (Eng. Lub Exit poll) - cia "tawm poll" (tej zaum siv "eksit-poll") - twb siv los ntawm sociological pab nyob ib ncig lub ntiaj teb no. Yuav ua li cas yog ib tug tawm poll? Qhov no yog ib txoj kev yuav tsum tau xam phaj cov pej xeem, thaum lawv mus rau lub pov noj tom qab lub pov npav thaum twg xaiv tsa. tawm poll tau yog lug siv nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no xyaum lub Sociology ntawm science.

Main paub tab thiab keeb kwm ntawm lub tswvyim

Yuav ua li cas yog ib tug tawm poll? Nws yog tau txais operative "txoj hau kev," lub sij hawm ntawm tej kev xaiv tsa nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej txuam nrog ntawm tej ntaub ntawv nyob rau hauv lub tam sim no electorate. A lub teb chaws nyob qhov twg rau thawj lub sij hawm siv tawm poll cov ntaub ntawv, - lub tebchaws United States. Journalist William Mitofski thawj ua ib tug daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas ntawm cov neeg nyob rau hauv lub tawm, thaum muaj kev xaiv tsa ntawm tus tswv xeev ntawm Kentucky xeev nyob rau hauv 1967. Txij thaum ntawd los, cov notion tias xws li tawm poll, tseem yuav luag unchanged. Thiab no lub npe yog ntau dua los yog tsawg ntse thov nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov xeem xaiv tsa!

Yuav ua li cas yog lub ntsiab lus? Yuav ua li cas yog ib tug tawm poll? Lub sij txheej txheem yog raws li nram no: Tawm hauv los ntawm lub pov noj, tau ua tiav raws li lawv lub luag hauj lwm interrogate pej xeem uas lawv pom zoo. Ntawm cov hoob kawm, qhov no yog nyob rau hauv mob ntawm lawv. Piv txwv tias yog tias feem coob ntawm cov neeg xaiv tsa tsis muaj yog vim li cas rau teb dag, cov ntaub ntawv ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb yog siv rau cov reconciliation nrog lub teb luam tawm version. Nyob rau hnub xaiv tsa, cov zaj lus tim khawv tawm polls lug them los ntawm cov xovxwm thiab TV. Cov kev tshwm sim no, raws li ib tug txoj cai, manifest nyob rau hauv ib lub sij hawm thaum khej tau raug kaw.

niaj hnub tsim

Nws yog tam sim no dav siv Internet technology - Ntiaj teb Exit Poll. Los ntawm no hauv internet txoj kev loj hlob, muaj kev nkag tau mus rau nws cov pej xeem, tsis tau tawm hauv lub tsev, dua anonymously, rau koj tus kheej lub computer yuav nco ntsoov pov npav thiab thaum lub sij hawm mus nrhiav kom tau ib tug zoo los qeb duas rau yog hais txog tej nom tswv thiab kev ua ub no.

zog

Exit polls ua qhov yooj yim zog - ntaub ntawv (uas muaj xws li lub pre-tawm nyob rau hauv cov kev tshwm sim ntawm tej kev xaiv tsa) thiab lwm yam uas (uas txo mus rau ib tug tsawg kawg nkaus txhob txwm distortion ntawm kev xaiv tsa tau). Thiab kom cov ntaub ntawv ntau txhim khu kev qha, kev koom tes ob (los yog xav paub ntxiv) kev tshawb fawb tuam txhab uas muag ywj siab tes hauj lwm ntawm neeg nug. Qauv ntawv tshawb fawb yog tseem muab faib ua ob los yog ntau tshaj (nyob ntawm seb tus xov tooj ntawm tuam txhab uas muag) ntawm lub. Ces tus coincidence ntawm cov daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas tau yog ib tug ntawm qhov zoo tshaj kev rau tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv tau txais.

Yog vim li cas cov neeg tsis ntseeg?

Tsis tau cov kev tshwm sim ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb yog tsis intrinsically indicative ntawm cov pejxeem uas feem ntau tsis paub dab tsi tawm chaw xaiv tsa. Lawv ua tau tsuas ceeb toom rau ib tug ntawm cov neeg cam khwb cia lawv votes nyob rau hauv cov kev xaiv tsa xwb qhov ncaj koom nyob rau hauv lub poll. Ib tug zaum kawg tau tej zaum yuav txawv los ntawm kev tshwm sim ntawm CRC. Tab sis, raws li thoob ntiaj teb xyaum lub tswv yim chaw xaiv tsa, tawm poll cov ntaub ntawv, feem ntau yuav, yuav muaj ib tug me ntsis kev ua yuam kev raws li muab piv nrog rau lub txoos tau ntawm lub pov npav.

tau

Muaj kuj yog lub tswv yim ntawm cov kev soj ntsuam, muaj yog tsis muaj yog vim li cas yuav siv tawm polls mus saib lub siab dawb paug ntawm kev xaiv tsa. Nyob rau hauv lub rooj plaub uas lub ntsiab pejxeem cia siab rau rau lub tsev ntawm kev xaiv tsa, "tawm poll" tau raws li cov kev tswj yuav tsuas tsis xav tau. Yog hais tias xws pej xeem cog qoob loo (los yog pab pawg neeg ntawm cov neeg) yeej tsis muaj ib daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas tsuas ua rau tsis muaj kev txiav txim zoo. Vim hais tias yog hais tias tus pro-tsoom fwv cov lug tau txaus lub hwj chim thiab economic cov kev pab nyob rau hauv kev txiav txim rau massively rig lub ballots thiab votes, thiab ces simulate ib tug zoo tawm poll yuav ua tau ib tug snap! Txawm li cas los, tsis muaj qhov no socio-thoj cov txheej txheem - tawm poll - tsis muaj leej twg ntawm hnub no txoj kev xaiv tsa yog tsis raug nqi!