Relations ntawm Russia thiab Qaib Cov Txwv: lub forecast rau lub neej yav tom ntej

Ntawm cov hoob kawm, niaj hnub no nws yog tsis muaj daim card uas kev sib raug zoo ntawm Russia thiab Qaib Cov Txwv los tsim kom tau rau centuries, tau undergone hloov. Lawv tau qub rau cov kev txwv. Qhov no yog kev lom zem ntau qhia los ntawm cua sov rau cov thoob ntiaj teb cov teeb meem no: ib tug loj-scale tub rog-thoj los ua ke uas ensued los ntawm lub Middle East mus Ukraine tej zaum yuav nyob rau txhua lub sij hawm tuaj xoob thiab tig mus rau hauv ib tug bloodbath.

Russia-qaib ntxhw kev sib raug zoo yog aggravated feem ntau los ntawm lub fact tias lub teb chaws, coj los ntawm Erdogan, enlisting (albeit indirect) them nyiaj yug rau lub North Atlantic bloc, illegally invaded lub sab qaum teb yog ib feem ntawm Syria, thiab pib ntawm cov tub rog ua hauj lwm muaj.

Tab sis ib tug daws teeb meem rau Russia, nyob rau hauv lub UN Security Council, Western lub teb chaws thiab hauv lub tebchaws United States yog tsis txaus siab. Ua li cas tos Russia-qaib ntxhw kev sib raug zoo nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej thiab yog vim li cas lawv yog tam sim no tsim nyob rau hauv "kev nyuaj siab" scenario. Xav txog lo lus nug no nyob rau hauv ntau yam.

Lavxias teb sab bomber puas lawm

Russia-qaib ntxhw kev sib raug zoo worsened tsis tau tsuas yog rau saum toj no yog vim li cas. Ua ntej ntawm tag nrho cov no pab mus rau kev puas tsuaj ntawm cov Lavxias teb sab Su-24M. Lub culprit ntawm no qhov teeb meem yog lub Turkish sab uas cuaj luaj "av-rau-cua" rov nyob rau hauv nws cov lus, "ib tug lam kwv, ua txhaum lub airspace." Nyob rau hauv qhov tseeb, lub dav hlau tua rog ua tau zoo rau peacekeeping lub hom phiaj thiab tsis ua rau lwm tus neeg uas zoo heev. Txawm li cas los, Turkish Thawj Tswj Hwm Erdogan hais tias qhov teeb meem nrog rau cov Su-24M nws yog frustrating thiab ua rau koj xav. Txawm li cas los, nws yog nyob rau hauv tsis tsuag tsuag los txhim kho kev sib raug zoo nrog Russia, noj tag nrho cov luag hauj lwm rau kev rhuav tseg aircraft.

Lub confrontation intensified

Nws yuav tsum tau muab sau tseg hais tias qhov teeb meem ntawm Moldova thiab Qaib Cov Txwv yog compounded los ntawm lwm yam tseem ceeb.

Suffice nws nco qab cov ntaub ntawv nrog lub saib xyuas, "Ntse-witted", uas yuav tsum tau li cas rau cov lus ceeb toom hluav taws kub nyob rau hauv Turkish seiner mus ram. Muaj peev xwm tsis thab, thiab qhov tseeb hais tias qaib ntxhw kaw lub Bosporus rau Russia, nqa peb ua lag luam ships muaj mus rau sawv tawm los ntawm lub teeb. Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, lub teb chaws Erdogan sim los mus tiv thaiv bursirovke Lavxias teb sab drilling Rigs nyob rau hauv lub FM cheeb tsam.

txaus ntsuas

Ntawm cov hoob kawm, peb lub teb chaws yuav tsis teb rau txhoj puab heev thiab txhaum cai kev ua "Black" neeg zej zog. Yog vim li cas qaib ntxhw twb npaj yuav? Lavxias teb sab txim tsis ntev nyob rau hauv los.

Ua ntej, lub Turkish pej xeem raug tsis kam muab cov cai los mus ua kom tawm ntawm zog kev sib raug zoo nrog cov tswv zog. Secondly, qhia cov kev tshem ntawm charter flights ntawm peb lub teb chaws thiab lub Turkish xeev. Peb, nws tau raug txwv neeg mus ncig tebchaws mus ncig teb chaws mus rau lub Dub hiav txwv lub teb chaws. Fourthly, Qaib ntxhw abolished visa regime. Fifthly, lub txim tau yuam nyob rau hauv kev sib hwm ntawm tej hom zaub, txiv hmab txiv ntoo, ntses, nqaij ntses nyoo, yog mas ntawm lub teb chaws, coj los ntawm Erdogan, niaj hnub no.

seb Qaib ntxhw tau raug kev txom nyem? Lavxias teb sab rau txim tau qhov tseeb hais tias yog.

armed forces

Yog vim li cas ua Erdogan xav tias ntseeg thaum ua yog kom meej meej unfriendly kev ua tiv thaiv peb lub teb chaws?

Ntawm chav kawm, nws pom tau tias (albeit indirect) them nyiaj yug ntawm NATO. Zoo, nyob rau hauv thiaj li yuav ua tau nws cov kev txaus siab nyob rau hauv Syria, nws yog suav on nws tus kheej armed forces. Tab sis piv seb Qaib ntxhw thiab Lavxias teb sab pab tub rog? Ntawm cov hoob kawm tsis tau.

Piv txwv li, nyob rau hauv peb lub teb chaws cov xov tooj ntawm cov neeg ua yog hais txog 1 million. Cov neeg tiv thaiv 410.000 Turks. Lavxias teb sab tank arsenal yog tam sim no nyob ib ncig ntawm 21,000 units, thaum "Dub hiav txwv" tus neeg nyob ze muaj ib tug me ntsis tshaj 3,000 units, yuav luag ib nrab ntawm cov uas yog technically obsolete.

Ib tug zoo xws li cov teeb meem no tshwm sim nrog artillery thiab armored tsheb. Txawm tias muaj tseeb hais tias cov Turkish tub rog, thiab Russia - yog ob tug sib txawv pawg, tab sis yog tias koj coj mus rau hauv tus account lub armor hwj chim ntawm ob lub teb chaws, qhov zoo ntawm cov artillery thiab tso tsheb hlau luam thawb mus rau lub keeb kwm yav dhau. Yog vim li cas? Yes, tag nrho vim hais tias Russia thiab Qaib Cov Txwv, muaj tsis muaj av ciam teb rau lwm.

Ua tsis tau zoo rau peb cov nyob sib ze lub teb chaws, thaum piv rau lub peev xwm ntawm Cua Dag Zog Yuam. Lavxias teb sab VKS muaj loj bombing hwj chim uas muaj tiag hloov lub "ua yeeb yam ua tsov ua rog", ob qho tib si nyob rau hauv cov av thiab nyob rau hauv lub hiav txwv.

Thiab, ntawm chav kawm, tsis txhob mus rau kev sib piv ntawm lub teb chaws nyob rau hauv lub fleets. Yog, ib tug neeg yuav qhuas cov arsenal Turkish ua luam dej ships, yim corvettes, submarines, kaum plaub, kaum frigates. Tab sis tsis txhob xav tsis thoob lwm txheeb cais: tsuas yog nyob rau hauv lub dub hiav txwv, Zog ntawm Guj kuj muaj txog tsib caug warships.

Qaib ntxhw plays nyob rau hauv peb lub teb chaws thiab tus naj npawb ntawm foob pob ua ntxaij ustanovok.Takim txoj kev, ib tug sib piv ntawm cov zog ntawm Guj kuj thiab Qaib Cov Txwv nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm cov tub rog muaj peev xwm, nws muaj peev xwm yuav xaus lus tias Erdogan tus tub rog muaj zog thiab muaj hwj chim loj, tab sis nws yog kom meej meej ua tsis tau zoo rau peb li.

Cov kev cai ntawm ob qauv

Dua li ntawm qhov high degree ntawm zoo ntawm diplomatic kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov saum toj no-hais lub teb chaws, qaib ntxhw tsis yig mus siv ob qauv nyob rau hauv thoob ntiaj teb tej xwm txheej, thiab yeej tsis pheej tsis tshua mus ib lub sij hawm kawm ib cov ntaub ntawv uas cov kev pab, tej zaum kuj soj ntsuam nrog neeg ua phem cov koom haum.

Lub Kremlin tau pheej hais tias qaib ntxhw sov nyob rau bandits, leej twg ces ua teeb meem txhaum cai nyob rau hauv lub teb chaws ntawm Russia. Tshwj xeeb cov kev pab cuam Ankara muab kev pab rau radical Islamists nyob rau hauv lub North Caucasus. Nws kuj los ua npe hu hais tias Qaib Cov Txwv yog muab neeg tua hluav taws nrog tej caj npab, mos txwv.

Muaj cov lwm cov ntaub ntawv uas Ankara yog ib qho tseem ceeb khub rau qhov muag ntawm cov roj, uas yog muab rho los ntawm thoob ntiaj teb lub txim txhaum gangs.

Thiab tag nrho cov no yog tshwm sim tawm tsam lub backdrop ntawm Erdogan cov lus, uas yeej tseem zoo boils down rau qhov no: nws yog tsim nyog los ua ntu sib ntaus tawm tsam cov neeg phem.

lub neej yav tom ntej

Yuav koj tham txog lub imminent kev txhim kho ntawm kev sib raug zoo ntawm Russia thiab Qaib Cov Txwv? Tej zaum tsis tau. Tab sis tseem tham txog qhov tseeb hais tias ob tog npaj siab yuav mus nres lub sib tham, yog tsis tsim nyog. Qhov no qhia tau qhov tseeb hais tias Moscow yog npaj txhij rau kev txaus siab rau cov luag num nyob rau hauv lub cog lus, thiab Ankara yog nyob rau hauv tsis tsuag tsuag yuav ua kom paub rov ua phem rau txim. Yog hais tias peb tham txog cov kev xaiv ntawm economic kev koom tes, nws yog yuav, phau ntawv hom yuav tsum siv no.

Qhov kawg tsev lag luam ntawm kev sib raug zoo ntawm Qaib ntxhw thiab Russia yuav tshwm sim yog tias Erdogan thiab nws pab neeg rau resign, thiab nws successor yuav tsis tau obsessed nrog rau lub tswv yim mus rau revive lub Ottoman Empire.