Kev loj hlob tsis zoo thiab lwm yam kev qhia

Analysis ntawm yuav ua li cas khaus thiab ceev kev hloov tshwm sim thaum lub sij hawm, yog nqa tawm siv statistical ntsuas zog. Koj tuaj yeem xam lawv ntawm qhov sib txawv lossis ntawm qhov sib piv ntawm qhov sib piv. Nyob rau tib lub sij hawm, qib sib piv yog feem ntau hu ua "kev tshaj tawm", tab sis qhov uas nws tau muab sib piv yog "theem pib". Cov kev tshwm sim muaj xws li:

- txoj kev loj hlob nqi ;

- cov kev loj hlob;

- txog kev nce nqi;

- qhov tseem ceeb ntawm ib feem pua.

Los ntawm kev xam cov ntsuas hauv ib qho zuj zus, txhua qib raug muab piv nrog cov theem pib. Hauv ib hom kev ua tau zoo, pib qib lossis qhov taw qhia ntawm qhov kev ntsuam xyuas ntawm qhov tshwm sim los yog txheej txheem pib. Piv txwv, yog tias lub sij hawm txij thaum xyoo 2008 mus rau 2013 tau txheeb xyuas, ces 2009-2013 raug muab piv rau xyoo 2008. Cov kev qhia uas tau suav ua li no yog hu ua "basic".

Los ntawm kev xam cov ntsuas rau lub hauv paus uas tsis paub meej, txhua theem yog txheeb xyuas nrog rau yav dhau los (piv txwv li, xyoo 2008-2013, 2009 piv nrog 2008, 2010 - txij xyoo 2009, thiab lwm yam). Numerical ntsuas feem ntau yog hu ua "chain".

Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj qhia lub sij hawm series yog dawb huv tau. Nws tau hloov qhov kev hloov hauv qhov zoo lossis tsis zoo sab rau qee lub sijhawm. Hauv lub hauv paus uas tsis paub meej, nws hloov yog feem ntau hu ua "kev loj hlob tus nqi".

Raws li, qhov nce nce yuav ua tau yooj yim los yog saw hlau. Lawv kuj tau sib txuas: cov lus sib sau ua ke ntawm kev sib nrauj zoo nrig sib npaug sib npaug nrog rau ib qho yooj yim, uas yog tag nrho kev nce qib dua ib lub sijhawm.

Yuav kom ntsuas qhov kev siv rau ib lub caij nyoog, nws yog ib qhov tsim nyog los txiav txim qhov tus nqi ntawm kev loj hlob (poob). Nws txhais tias yog kev sib raug zoo ntawm qhov kev tshaj qhia thiab qhov tseem ceeb. Qhov kev loj hlob yog ntsuas hauv feem pua. Yog xav paub meej txog qhov qhia tau ntawm qhov ntsuas no, koj yuav tsum txhais nws cov nqi rau hauv cov zauv ntawm ib qho. Nws qhia tau hais tias ntau npaum li cas cov qib sib txawv yog los ntawm lub hauv paus los yog yav dhau los. Tus nqi ntawm txoj kev loj hlob tsis tuaj yeem ua tus nab npawb tsis zoo.

Qhov kev loj hlob yooj yim tshaj txhua lub sij hawm yog qhov khoom ntawm cov khoom sib txuas.

Muaj yog ib qho kev taw qhia xws li ib tug nqi ntawm nce (los yog txo), uas qhia tau hais tias qhov feem pua sib txawv ntawm cov ntau ntau. Yog hais tias qhov kev nce qib tsis yog faib los ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov theem uas tau ua raws li lub hauv paus, qhov nqi no yuav raug muab. Nws tseem yuav xam los ntawm kev rho tawm ntawm kev loj hlob tus nqi ntawm 100 los yog los ntawm qhov kev loj hlob zoo ntawm kev sib sau. Nws yog ntsuas hauv feem pua, thiab qhov coefficient yog nyob rau feem ntawm ib qho. Lub tom kawg yuav ua tau ob yam tsis zoo thiab zoo, thiab sib npaug rau xoom.

Qab cov cim no, qhov tseem ceeb ntawm ib feem pua ntawm qhov kev loj hlob yog muab zais - qhov kev nce qib hauv kev loj hlob nrog ntau lub sijhawm. Qhov no feem pua yog xam.

Cov cwj pwm no cia peb sib piv cov txheej txheem ntawm kev tsim thiab sib cuam tshuam nrog ntau lub sijhawm, thiab sib piv nrog cov teeb meem ntawm ntau lub phenomena thoob teb chaws, ntev li cas hauv keeb kwm, thiab lwm yam. Thiab nws yuav tsum raug sau tseg tias kev txheeb xyuas kev tsim cov txheej txheem thiab qhov tshwm sim hauv lub sij hawm, nws yog ib qhov tsim nyog los soj ntsuam tag nrho cov ntsuas no hauv cov lus sib sau ua ib qho duab tiav.